Centre for Economic Analysis

Microsimulation Report 02/14

Unemployment trap and family benefits in Poland (PL)                                                                      ...

 

Michał Myck, Michał Kundera, Mateusz Najsztub

Abstract:

The Report presents analysis of the Polish family benefits system in the context of relation between the level of financial support for families with children and parental labor market incentives. We present the results of increase of income thresholds planned for November 2014 and analyse set of potential reforms in the family benefits system for the year 2015. In particular we are interested in reforms which give incentives to unemployed parents of children to start working. The analysis used the microsimulation model SIMPL based on the data from the Polish Household Budget Survey from year 2011.

 

 

   

Microsimulation Report 01/14

Data and model cross-validation to improve accuracy of microsimulation results: estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey

 

Michał Myck, Mateusz Najsztub

Abstract:

We conduct detailed analysis of the Polish Household Budget Survey data for the years 2006-2011 with the focus on its representativeness from the point of view of microsimulation analysis. We find important discrepancies between the data weighted with baseline grossing-up weights and official statistics from other sources. A number of re-weighting exercises is examined from the point of view of the accuracy of microsimulation results and we show that using a combination of demographic calibration targets with several economic status variables or tax identifiers from the microsimulation model substantially improves the correspondence of model results and administrative data. While demographic re-weighting is neutral from the point of view of income distribution, calibrating the grossing-up weights to adjust for economic status and tax identifiers significantly increases income inequality. We argue that although data re-weighting can substantially improve the accuracy of microsimulation it should be used with caution.

   

Microsimulation Report 02/13

Financial support for families with children in Poland: examples of modifications in the tax system (PL)

 

 

 

Michał Myck, Michał Kundera, Monika Oczkowska

Abstract:

The Report presents the effect of modifying the Polish tax system, on the one hand, using the approach taken to supporting families with children in France, and on the other by making the universal tax allowance dependent on the number of children. We also present the consequences of shifting tax preferenes towards families with children in the form of limitations on joint taxation for married couples and other alternative changes in the tax system.
Appendix A contains simulation extensions demonstrating the possibility of including a form of the child tax credit in agricultural tax.

   

Microsimulation Report 01/13

Financial support for families with children in Poland in 2013 (PL)

 

 

 

Michał Myck, Michał Kundera, Monika Oczkowska

Abstract:

The Report presents analysis of the most important elements of financial support for families with children in Poland in 2013: family benefits and tax preferences available for parents. We analyse values of support for specific stylised families and using data from the Polish Household Budget Survey from 2010. The analysis uses the SIMPL microsimulation model.

   

Microsimulation Report 01/12

Distributional effect of tax and benefit reforms introduced from 2006-2011 (PL)

 

 

 

Adrian Domitrz, Leszek Morawski, Michał Myck, Aneta Semeniuk

Abstract:

TA series of tax and benefit reforms directly affecting household incomes have been introduced in Poland in the years 2006-2011. Taking advantage of the microsimulation model SIMPL we demonstrate that the entire package of reforms increased household incomes by from 1.7% to 2.2% of the GDP depending on the assumed incidence of reductions of employers’ social security contributions. With legislated incidence of SSCs incomes of 8.2% of households grew by more than 10%. Assigning entire reductions in employers’ SSCs to employees, incomes of as many as 16.7% of households grow by at least 10% as a result of the changes. At the same time however, about 8% of households experienced falling incomes, mainly as a result of freezing of the nominal parameter values of the tax and benefit system. We demonstrate that the proportional gains over the period have been distributed fairly equally by decile groups. The package of reforms introduced from 2006-2011 increased the value of the Gini coefficient by 0,46 percentage points.

   

Microsimulation Report 02/11

CenEA's 2011 Pre-election Report 2: Elections 2011: who will gain, who will lose and how much it will cost? (PL)

 

 

 

Michał Myck, Leszek Morawski, Adrian Domitrz, Aneta Semeniuk

Abstract:

The second part of CenEA’s Pre-election Report 2011 presents detailed analysis of electoral declarations of most important parties taking part in the 2011 parliamentary elections in Poland. The Report assesses the overall cost of the proposed reforms and their distributional consequences.

   

Microsimulation Report 01/11

CenEA's 2011 Pre-election Report 1: 2006-2011: who gained and who lost? (PL)


As part of the regular updates of the SIMPL model we have corrected an error in the income tax calculations, which affected the simulated results for the 2009 tax reform presented in Microsimulation Report 1/11. The updated and corrected calculations of the distributional effect of the 2006-2011 reforms have been presented in Microsimulation Report 1/12.

Michał Myck, Leszek Morawski, Adrian Domitrz, Aneta Semeniuk

Abstract:

The first part of CenEA’s Pre-election Report 2011 presents analysis of the influence of changes in the tax and benefit system in Poland during the last two terms of Parliament (2005-2011). The analysis, based on the Polish Household Budgets’ Survey (2009) uses the microsimulation model SIMPL and shows detailed account of the changes in the tax and benefit system introduced over the last six years, their effect on the balance of public finance and the situation of households by income and demographic groups. The report assesses the influence of the reforms introduced in each of the two terms of Parliament and compares implemented policies with declarations from previous elections.

   

Microsimulation Report 01/10

Distributional effects of the Polish Child Tax Credit and its potential reforms.

 

 

 

Leszek Morawski, Michał Myck

Abstract:

The Polish Child Tax Credit (CTC) in operation today differs substantially in its generosity and distributional implications from the original policy proposals. While initially designed as an instrument to target low income working families, the credit was implemented as a tax credit without any upper earnings limit, and its generosity was substantially extended in autumn 2007 implying an annual cost of about 0.5% of the Polish GDP. The current design grants highest gains in absolute terms to families in the upper half of the income distribution, while proportionally gains are most significant for those in the middle of the distribution. Households with children in the bottom decile of the income distribution gain on average about 7.60PLN per month, and those in the top 40% of the distribution gain over a hundred zloty per month on average. The paper also considers effects of potential reforms of the CTC aimed at reducing its cost. The recently discussed eligibility limitation to families with three or more children, would reduce the cost of the policy by between 80% and 90%, while a simulated reduction of generosity of the credit by 50%, would save the government about 2.2bn PLN per year. The latter policy would leave the incomes of families with children in the bottom deciles largely unchanged, and it would reduce the benefits from the credit to households in the upper half of the income distribution by about 50% on average.