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From Partial to Full Universality: The Family 500+ Programme in Poland and Its Labour Supply Implications
The implementation of the ‘Family 500+’ programme in April 2016 represented a significant shift in public support for families with children in Poland. The programme guaranteed 500 PLN/month (approx. 120 euros) for each second and subsequent child in the family and the same amount for the first child in families with incomes below a specified threshold. As of July 2019, the benefit has been made fully universal for all children aged 0-17, an extension which nearly doubled its total cost and benefited primarily middle and higher income households. We examine the labour market implications of both the initial design and its recent fully universal version. Using the discrete choice labour supply model, we show that the initial Family 500+ benefits generated strong labour supply disincentives and were expected to result in the withdrawal of between 160-200 thousand women from the labour market. The recent removal of the means test is likely to nullify this negative effect, leading to an approximately neutral impact on labour supply. We argue that when spending over 4% of GDP on families with children, it should be possible to design a more comprehensive system of support, which would be more effective in reaching the joint objectives of low child poverty and high female employment combined with higher fertility rates.
Open Positions
For more information on the offer please see the attached document.
05.12.2019: CenEA’s Director, Michal Myck, to speak at an EBRD conference on “Equality and inclusion in the work place: best practices from CEE”
The EBRD, in collaboration with Google, organises a half-day conference on Thursday 5 December 2019 to discuss the future of equality and inclusion in the workplace and to share best practices from leading companies in Central and Eastern Europe.
The regional conference builds on the current business momentum to address emerging economic inclusion in Central and Eastern Europe and explore solutions driven by the private sector under equal opportunities-related policies and practices across operations, including recruitment, outreach, training, retention, safety, promotion, advancement, family leave, as well as skills development strategies.
The landscape around diversity and inclusion in the workplace has changed significantly given demographics change and the rising awareness on fairness in the workplace. Employers are beginning to understand the importance of creating an equal and diverse workplace for attracting and retaining talent. Education around diversity and inclusion is no longer a “check-the-box” item, but a vital aspect of company culture.
An increasing number of millennials believe that organizations have a moral obligation to give back to the society in ways that create an inclusive environment for everyone to participate and thrive, regardless of their gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, race, ethnicity or disability. What does this mean for the future landscape of the workplace? What can companies do to meet the demand of the new workforce?
The session aims at building the understanding of the audience in the following topics:
- Acknowledging progress on gender equality-based equal opportunities policies and practices and taking stock of emerging challenges (childcare provision, women on boards);
- Recognising the importance of wider diversity and equality in the future workplace landscape, especially for LGBTI and people with disabilities;
- Discussing the key issues facing companies around equality and diversity and the relevant advice to address them;
- Demonstrating the value of creating a diverse and equal workplace to facilitate peer-learning through sharing case studies and training opportunities.
More information about the event can be found here.
Reevaluating distributional consequences of the transition to market economy in Poland: new results from combined household survey and tax return data
We use Pareto imputation, survey reweighting, and microsimulation methods applied to combined household survey and tax return data to reevaluate distributional consequences of the post-socialist transition in Poland. Our approach results in the first estimates of top-corrected inequality trends for real equivalized disposable incomes over the years 1994-2015. We find that the top-corrected Gini coefficient grew by 14-26% more compared to the unadjusted survey-based estimates. This implies that over the last three decades Poland has become one of the most unequal European countries among those for which top-corrected inequality estimates exist. The highest-income earners benefited the most during the post-socialist transformation: the annual rate of income growth for the top 5% of the population exceeded 3.5%, while the median income grew by about 2.5%.
Polityka podatkowo-świadczeniowa rządu Zjednoczonej Prawicy: program wyborczy i jego realizacja w latach 2015-2019
Niniejszy Raport stanowi rozszerzenie i aktualizację wyników przedstawionych w publikacji z dn. 12.04.2019, w której podsumowano wpływ rozwiązań podatkowo-świadczeniowych rządu Zjednoczonej Prawicy uwzględniając reformy, które weszły lub miały wejść w życie do lipca 2019 r. W ostatnich miesiącach do tego pakietu reform dołączyły kolejne rozwiązania, które obowiązywać zaczęły przed końcem VIII kadencji Sejmu. Rozwiązania te znacząco wpłyną na sytuację gospodarstw domowych, jednocześnie stanowiąc dodatkowy koszt lub ubytek dochodów dla sektora finansów publicznych. Biorąc pod uwagę wyłącznie rozwiązania, które rząd Zjednoczonej Prawicy wprowadził na stałe do polskiego systemu podatkowo- świadczeniowego, korzyści dla gospodarstw domowych w ujęciu rocznym wynoszą 47,7 mld zł, co odpowiada 2,1% PKB, choć należy podkreślić, że niemal 70% tej kwoty – 33,5 mld zł – stanowią efekty rozwiązań, które weszły w życie dopiero w drugiej połowie 2019 r. i które sektor finansów publicznych w pełni odczuje dopiero w 2020 r.
Raport jest dostępny tutaj.
Informacja prasowa: “Obietnice i ich realizacje: więcej świadczeń, mniej korzyści podatkowych”
Kontakt dla mediów:
CenEA
dr. hab. Michał Myck
tel. 91 831 40 29
mmyck@cenea.org.pl
Projects funded by the Polish National Science Centre (NCN)
Changing times: work and out of work time-use dynamics in the context of technological changes and global shocks
Duration: January 2026 – December 2028
Principal Investigator: Michał Myck
Project information: NCN website
Material Conditions and Older Age Wellbeing in Germany and Poland: Institutional and Regional Variation in Individual Risks and Insurance Mechanisms
Duration: February 2020 – February 2024
Principal Investigators: Michał Myck (CenEA) & Martina Brandt (TU Dortmund)
Project information: NCN website
Main publications:
“Income and well-being in old age: The role of local contextual factors”, The Journal of the Economics of Ageing
“Homeownership and the perception of material security in old age”, Applied Economics
“Temporal Discounting in Later Life”, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization
“Deaths during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from regional patterns in Germany and Poland”, BMC Public Health
Labour market policy and pre-retirement employment dynamics
Duration: January 2019 – January 2022
Principal Investigator: Michał Myck
Project information: NCN website
Main publications:
“Home alone: Widows’ well-being and time”, Journal of Happiness Studies
“Labor Market Externalities of Pre-retirement Employment Protection”, NBER Working Paper 32371
Administrative changes as tools in identification of causes behind disparities in regional development
Duration: January 2017 – April 2019
Principal Investigator: Michał Myck
Project information: NCN website
Main publications:
“Implications of the Polish 1999 administrative reform for regional socio-economic development”, Economics of Transition and Institutional Change
“Lights along the frontier: convergence of economic activity in the proximity of the Polish-German border, 1992–2012”, Applied Economics
A quarter century later: long term consequences of the “shock therapy” at individual level
Duration: January 2016 – July 2019
Principal Investigator: Michał Myck
Project information: NCN website
Main publications:
“Shocked by therapy? Unemployment in the first years of the socio‐economic transition in Poland and its long‐term consequences”, The Economics of Transition
“Healthier over time? Period effects in health among older Europeans in a step-wise approach to identification”, Social Science & Medicine
Examining the life-cycle theory of consumption: expenditure patterns of Polish households before and after retirement
Duration: February 2013 – December 2014
Principal Investigator: Michał Myck
Project information: NCN website
Main publications:
“The Effect of Public Pension Wealth on Saving and Expenditure”, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
“Who gets to look nice and who gets to play? Effects of child gender on household expenditures”, Review of Economics of the Household
Stability of labour supply elasticity in the context of high wage growth dynamics and important labour tax reforms in Poland 2005-2009
Duration: May 2011 – February 2014
Principal Investigator: Michał Myck
Main publications:
“For some mothers more than others”, The Economics of Transition
“Financial incentives to work in the context of a complex reform package and growing wages: the Polish experience 2005-2011”, Baltic Journal of Economics
Projects realized in cooperation within the FREE Network
CenEA plays a coordinating role in the FREE Network wide project on the scope and consequences of gender inequalities in the region of Central and Eastern Europe.
Financed by the the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida.
Project subcontracted from SITE with funding from the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Sida.
Projects related to the realization of the SHARE survey
Between 2009 and 2017 CenEA was the Polish partner in the international consortium (SHARE-ERIC) responsible for the development of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Michal Myck, CenEA’s Director, was the Polish country team leader for SHARE between 2005-2017, and supervised the data collection in Poland in waves 2, 3, 4, 6 and 7. Monika Oczkowska has been the Polish SHARE country team operator since joining CenEA in 2012 (since January 2018 through cooperation with the Warsaw School of Economics which has taken over the coordination of the SHARE project in Poland).
The development of SHARE has been funded through various sources. In its role as the partner in the SHARE consortium CenEA has realized the following projects:
Support in the realisation of panel data surveys of individuals aged 50+ in the international project Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE)
Duration: March 2016 – December 2017.
Project co-funded from the European Social Fund (POWER), implemented in partnership with the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy and within international scientific cooperation of the SHARE-ERIC consortium.
SHARE – Complementary Blood Collection
Duration: October 2014 – April 2016
In cooperation with the Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) and the Jagiellonian University CenEA participated in a pilot study of complementing the SHARE interview data with biomarkers.
Conducted under agreement with MEA with funding provided by the Natioanl Institute on Aging.
SHARE Data Collection in Wave 6
Duration: October 2014 – December 2015
Conducted under agreement with the Ministry of Labour and Social Policy with funding provided by the European Social Fund.
SHARE: Multinational Advancement of Research Infrastructures on Ageing
Duration: January 2011 – December 2014
CenEA was the leader of the Work Package of this FP7 project aiming at development of multidimensional exclusion measures for the 50+ population.
Projects related to development of the EUROMOD microsimulation model
Projects realized in partnership with the Institute for Socio-Economic Research (ISER), University of Essex focused on development of the Polish module of the EUROMOD microsimulation model. In these projects the development of the EUROMOD model has been financially supported by the European Commission.
CenEA has been cooperating with the ISER team on the development of the European microsimulation model through participation in a number of projects realized in:
EUROMOD 2019: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2017 EU-SILC data and 2019 tax and benefit system
EUROMOD 2018: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2016 EU-SILC data and 2018 tax and benefit system
EUROMOD 2017: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2015 EU-SILC data and 2017 tax and benefit system
EUROMOD 2017: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2014 EU-SILC data and 2016 tax and benefit system
EUROMOD 2017: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2013 EU-SILC data and 2015 tax and benefit system
EUROMOD 2017: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2012 EU-SILC data and 2014 tax and benefit system
EUROMOD 2017: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2011 EU-SILC data and 2013 tax and benefit system
EUROMOD 2017: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2010 EU-SILC data and 2012 tax and benefit system
EUROMOD 2017: update of the Polish module of EUROMOD to 2009 EU-SILC data and 2011 tax and benefit system
An additional project was subcontracted with the Catholic University of Leuven:
Modelling indirect taxes in the EUROMOD model
Duration: May 2016 – September 2016
Imputation of expenditure patterns and the implied burden of VAT and excise from the Polish Household Budget Survey data to EU-SILC data with the aim of extending the EUROMOD microsimulation model to cover indirect taxes.
Lights along the frontier: convergence of economic activity in the proximity of the Polish-German border, 1992-2012
This paper studies regional economic development on the municipality-level in Poland and Germany along the Oder-Neisse border. We use high-quality satellite night-time light intensity data as an innovative, comparable and reliable measure to proxy for economic activity on both sides of the border consistently over a long period of time (1992-2012). We use descriptive heat maps as well as regression analysis to investigate two aspects: first, how far is the economic convergence across and within municipalities along the Polish-German border? Second, what effect does the distance to the border have on economic activity as measured with light emissions? Our findings suggest that – somewhat surprisingly – convergence across the border has been almost complete. Polish towns that used to be economically much weaker have caught up with German towns. Also, we show that the patterns of economic activity related to distance vary greatly for Germany and Poland.