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Wybory Parlamentarne 2023 w Polsce: Komentarze Wyborcze CenEA

Komentarz “Druga kadencja rządów Zjednoczonej Prawicy: wsparcie rodzin z dziećmi w czasach wysokiej inflacji”, 13.09.2023

Komentarz “Druga kadencja rządów Zjednoczonej Prawicy: kto zyskał, a kto stracił?”, 14.09.2023

Materiały metodyczne

Dane do wykresów prezentowanych w Komentarzach można pobrać tutaj.

Komentarz “Podatki i świadczenia w programach wyborczych 2023”, 09.10.2023 (aktualizacja wyników 23.10.2023)

Komentarz “Poszukując kompromisu: podatkowe deklaracje przedwyborcze i możliwości ich realizacji”, 30.10.2023

Komentarz “Plany wydatkowe w expose premiera Donalda Tuska wygłoszonym w Sejmie RP 12 grudnia 2023 r.”, 18.12.2023

 

Kontakt dla mediów:

dr hab. Michał Myck, mmyck@cenea.org.pl

 

Join us!

In 2023 CenEA will recruit a graduate for the Research Economist position, with the following basic requirements:

  • master’s degree in social sciences (economics, sociology) or natural sciences
  • interest in social and economic policy
  • excellent communications and writing skills
  • very good knowledge of English

The position offers excellent opportunities for developing research skills and involves working in an international environment within a small team of experienced researchers. CenEA provides a stimulating work environment and supports personal development through international workshops, seminars and training. A successful candidate will work on a full-time basis as part of CenEA’s research team in Szczecin. Apply until September 15 by sending your CV with a cover letter (in English) to admin@cenea.org.pl. More details and the full job advertisement can be found here.

Temporal discounting in later life

Abstract

We explore intertemporal decision-making in later life by looking at temporal preference heterogeneity among older individuals. Using choice tasks responses from Poland collected as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we elicit individual time preferences using competing discounting specifications. With the formulation that best fits our data, we examine which individual characteristics drive the estimated heterogeneity in later life time preferences. Individual numerical abilities, labour and marital status, as well as household income turn out to be significant correlates of patience. Our analysis also provides methodological guidance for instrument design with the aim of eliciting time preferences in a general survey setting.

The full paper is available here.

Parental gender preferences in Central and Eastern Europe and differential early life disadvantages

In the article published in the Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, the researchers from CenEA take a closer look at preferences of the parents regarding gender of their children in five countries from Central and Eastern Europe. The full text of the article is openly available.

 

Abstract

Parental gender preferences may affect partnership decisions and as a result lead to early life disadvantages. We study these preferences in five post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, a region with strong traditional gender norms and persisting inequalities between women and men in labour market outcomes. Using subsamples of census from Belarus, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Russia around 2000 and 2010, we follow Dahl and Moretti (2008), The demand for sons, to examine the effect of the gender of the first-born child(ren) on fertility decisions and relationship stability of their parents. We only find strong evidence of ‘boy preferences’ in fertility decisions in the cases of Romania and Russia. However, unlike Dahl and Moretti (2008), The demand for sons, for the US, we cannot confirm a relationship between the children’s gender and parental partnership decisions. This is the case for all examined Central and Eastern European countries, as well as for a number of countries from Western Europe. The cases of Romania and Russia raise questions about other potential consequences of the documented gender preferences. We argue that our approach can be applied more broadly to identify other countries characterised by parental gender preferences, and to motivate further examination of different forms of gender driven early life disadvantages.

Call for papers | The playing field in academia: Why are women still underrepresented?

The Forum for Research on Gender Economics (FROGEE) together with the Centre for Economic Analysis (CenEA) and the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) invites academic papers to a conference held in Warsaw, entitled: “The playing field in academia: Why are women still underrepresented?”

Conference

Women continue to be underrepresented in every stage of the academic career in many fields and they do not advance professionally at the same rate as men. A growing body of research in economics points towards social and institutional causes behind these inequalities and offers policy suggestions to address them. To discuss and disseminate recent developments in this area FROGEE together with CenEA and SITE invites academic papers to a conference held in Warsaw on 21-22 June, 2023.

The conference is organised as part of the FREE Network initiative FROGEE, supported by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida). It will combine contributed sessions, invited lectures and policy discussions.

Invited lectures:

Call for papers

We invite either full papers (early versions are welcome) or extended abstracts. Authors will have approximately 30 minutes for their presentations. There is no conference fee but participants are expected to cover their own travel and accommodation costs.

Submission deadline

Online submission is open via site@hhs.se, please in the subject box type: Submission: The playing field in academia”.

The deadline for submissions is 17 April 2023. Notifications are expected by 30 April 2023.

Save the date

21-22 June, 2023. More information about the conference can be found here.

Photo by metamorworks, Shutterstock.com

Deaths during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: insights from regional patterns in Germany and Poland

In the article published recently in the BMC Public Health, researchers from CenEA in cooperation with colleagues from the TU Dortmund University investigate the spatial correlation of deaths in the first year of the pandemic in two neighbouring countries – Germany and Poland, which, among high income countries, seem particularly different in terms of the death toll associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis aims to yield evidence that spatial patterns of mortality can provide important clues as to the reasons behind significant differences in the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic in these two countries.

The article is available here.

A short FREE Policy Brief summarizes the most relevant conclusions of the article: What Can We Learn from Regional Patterns of Mortality During the Covid-19 Pandemic? 

The article was prepared as part of the joint Polish-German research project AGE-WELL: Material Conditions and Older Age Wellbeing in Germany and Poland, funded by the National Science Centre in Poland (NCN) and the German Research Foundation (DFG). More details about the AGE-WELL project can be found here.

Home Alone: Widows’ Well-Being and Time

In the paper published recently in the Journal of Happiness Studies Michał Myck and Monika Oczkowska, together with their co-authors Maja Adena (WZB Berlin) and Daniel Hamermesh (University of Texas at Austin), examine differences between widowed and partnered older women in well-being and its development in widowhood. Their analysis accounts for time use, an aspect which has not been studied previously. For that purpose they use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and time diaries from Poland, the U.S., the U.K. and France. In the study the authors trace the evolution of well-being of women who become widowed by comparing them with their matched non-widowed ‘statistical twins’ and examine the role of an exceptionally broad set of potential moderators of widowhood’s impact on well-being. They confirm a dramatic decrease in mental health and life satisfaction after the loss of partner, followed by a slow partial recovery over a 5-year period. An extensive set of controls recorded prior to widowhood, including detailed family ties and social networks, provides little help in explaining the deterioration in well-being. Unique data from time-diaries kept by older women in several European countries and the U.S. tell us why: the key factor behind widows’ reduced well-being is increased time spent alone.

The article is available here.

Widows’ Time: Adjusting to Loss

In the paper published recently in the 50th Celebratory Volume of the Research in Labor Economics, Daniel Hamermesh (University of Texas at Austin), Michał Myck (CenEA) and Monika Oczkowska (CenEA) take a closer look at the consequences of widowhood with respect to individuals’ time use.

As the article states, comparing older married women to widows in the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) 2003–2018 and linking the data to the Current Population Survey allow inferring the short- and longer-term effects of a demographic shock – husband’s death – and measuring the paths of adjustment of time use to it. Widows differ from otherwise similar married women, especially from married women with working husbands, by cutting back on home production, mainly food preparation and housework, mostly by engaging in less of it each day, not doing it less frequently. The ratio of time to money expenditures on one item – food – is higher among married older couples than among widows. Widows are alone for 2/3 of the time they had spent with their spouses, with a small increase in time with friends and relatives shortly after becoming widowed. Older French, Italian, German, and Dutch women exhibit similar differences in time use; European widows also feel less time stress than married women. Following older women in 18 European countries before and after a partner’s death shows that becoming widowed reduces their feelings of time pressure.

The article is available here.

An earlier version of the analysis was published as NBER Working Paper No. 28752: Hamermesh, Myck, Oczkowska (2021) Widows’ Time, Time Stress and Happiness: Adjusting to Loss.

Homeownership and the Perception of Material Security in Old Age

Homeownership has been shown to be related to various aspects of well-being, although both the causal nature of this relationship and the possible channels behind it have been difficult to identify. We focus on one of the most often quoted mechanisms which could be responsible for the positive effects of homeownership, namely its role in providing material security in old age. Using data from 15 European countries collected in wave 2 of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we analyse the relationship between homeownership and material security, as measured through subjective expectations of being better or worse off in the future. We find that homeowners have a higher level of material security than renters, and this association is especially strong for those living in big cities. For this subsample, in comparison to renters, owning a property in the top quartile of the home value distribution is associated with an increase in the probability of expecting to be better off in the future by as much as 43%. With respect to our measure of material security we find no such correlations with education, income or financial assets. We interpret the results as support for the argument that homeownership offers a very particular form of material security, which may be behind its positivse implications for well-being.

The full research article is available as the IZA Discussion Paper.

A short FREE Policy Brief highlights the most important findings from the article.

Income Tax Policy in Europe Between Two Crises: From the Great Recession to the COVID-19 Pandemic

We examine the revenue and redistributive effects of tax policy reforms in twelve European countries over the decade between the financial crisis and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, setting them against the implications of a hypothetical system reflecting the extent of fiscal drag resulting from nominal wage increases. We show that the combination of wage growth and progressivity of the tax system determined the fiscal leeway which governments could use to reduce income inequality. Despite significantly faster wage growth in the examined post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, their much lower degree of progressivity implied limited additional scope for fiscal changes. While decisions taken in most of the examined countries in the CEE region led to increases in tax progressivity, their income tax systems continue to be far less redistributive in comparison with such countries as Ireland, the Netherlands, or Portugal. This not only has direct implications for income inequality but also translates into limitations of automatic fiscal drag effects on government revenues, which could offer additional resources, in particular at a time of high inflation. Keywords: gender preferences, fertility, family structure, transition countries.