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From Partial to Full Universality: The Family 500+ Programme in Poland and Its Labour Supply Implications
The implementation of the ‘Family 500+’ programme in April 2016 represented a significant shift in public support for families with children in Poland. The programme guaranteed 500 PLN/month (approx. 120 euros) for each second and subsequent child in the family and the same amount for the first child in families with incomes below a specified threshold. As of July 2019, the benefit has been made fully universal for all children aged 0-17, an extension which nearly doubled its total cost and benefited primarily middle and higher income households. We examine the labour market implications of both the initial design and its recent fully universal version. Using the discrete choice labour supply model, we show that the initial Family 500+ benefits generated strong labour supply disincentives and were expected to result in the withdrawal of between 160-200 thousand women from the labour market. The recent removal of the means test is likely to nullify this negative effect, leading to an approximately neutral impact on labour supply. We argue that when spending over 4% of GDP on families with children, it should be possible to design a more comprehensive system of support, which would be more effective in reaching the joint objectives of low child poverty and high female employment combined with higher fertility rates.
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05.12.2019: CenEA’s Director, Michal Myck, to speak at an EBRD conference on “Equality and inclusion in the work place: best practices from CEE”
The EBRD, in collaboration with Google, organises a half-day conference on Thursday 5 December 2019 to discuss the future of equality and inclusion in the workplace and to share best practices from leading companies in Central and Eastern Europe.
The regional conference builds on the current business momentum to address emerging economic inclusion in Central and Eastern Europe and explore solutions driven by the private sector under equal opportunities-related policies and practices across operations, including recruitment, outreach, training, retention, safety, promotion, advancement, family leave, as well as skills development strategies.
The landscape around diversity and inclusion in the workplace has changed significantly given demographics change and the rising awareness on fairness in the workplace. Employers are beginning to understand the importance of creating an equal and diverse workplace for attracting and retaining talent. Education around diversity and inclusion is no longer a “check-the-box” item, but a vital aspect of company culture.
An increasing number of millennials believe that organizations have a moral obligation to give back to the society in ways that create an inclusive environment for everyone to participate and thrive, regardless of their gender, sexual orientation, gender identity, race, ethnicity or disability. What does this mean for the future landscape of the workplace? What can companies do to meet the demand of the new workforce?
The session aims at building the understanding of the audience in the following topics:
- Acknowledging progress on gender equality-based equal opportunities policies and practices and taking stock of emerging challenges (childcare provision, women on boards);
- Recognising the importance of wider diversity and equality in the future workplace landscape, especially for LGBTI and people with disabilities;
- Discussing the key issues facing companies around equality and diversity and the relevant advice to address them;
- Demonstrating the value of creating a diverse and equal workplace to facilitate peer-learning through sharing case studies and training opportunities.
More information about the event can be found here.
Reevaluating distributional consequences of the transition to market economy in Poland: new results from combined household survey and tax return data
We use Pareto imputation, survey reweighting, and microsimulation methods applied to combined household survey and tax return data to reevaluate distributional consequences of the post-socialist transition in Poland. Our approach results in the first estimates of top-corrected inequality trends for real equivalized disposable incomes over the years 1994-2015. We find that the top-corrected Gini coefficient grew by 14-26% more compared to the unadjusted survey-based estimates. This implies that over the last three decades Poland has become one of the most unequal European countries among those for which top-corrected inequality estimates exist. The highest-income earners benefited the most during the post-socialist transformation: the annual rate of income growth for the top 5% of the population exceeded 3.5%, while the median income grew by about 2.5%.
Polityka podatkowo-świadczeniowa rządu Zjednoczonej Prawicy: program wyborczy i jego realizacja w latach 2015-2019
Niniejszy Raport stanowi rozszerzenie i aktualizację wyników przedstawionych w publikacji z dn. 12.04.2019, w której podsumowano wpływ rozwiązań podatkowo-świadczeniowych rządu Zjednoczonej Prawicy uwzględniając reformy, które weszły lub miały wejść w życie do lipca 2019 r. W ostatnich miesiącach do tego pakietu reform dołączyły kolejne rozwiązania, które obowiązywać zaczęły przed końcem VIII kadencji Sejmu. Rozwiązania te znacząco wpłyną na sytuację gospodarstw domowych, jednocześnie stanowiąc dodatkowy koszt lub ubytek dochodów dla sektora finansów publicznych. Biorąc pod uwagę wyłącznie rozwiązania, które rząd Zjednoczonej Prawicy wprowadził na stałe do polskiego systemu podatkowo- świadczeniowego, korzyści dla gospodarstw domowych w ujęciu rocznym wynoszą 47,7 mld zł, co odpowiada 2,1% PKB, choć należy podkreślić, że niemal 70% tej kwoty – 33,5 mld zł – stanowią efekty rozwiązań, które weszły w życie dopiero w drugiej połowie 2019 r. i które sektor finansów publicznych w pełni odczuje dopiero w 2020 r.
Raport jest dostępny tutaj.
Informacja prasowa: „Obietnice i ich realizacje: więcej świadczeń, mniej korzyści podatkowych”
Kontakt dla mediów:
CenEA
dr. hab. Michał Myck
tel. 91 831 40 29
mmyck@cenea.org.pl
Euromod Update – Stages I – IX
Planned duration: February 2019 – November 2019
Update of the Polish module of the EUROMOD microsimulation model to run on EU-SILC 2017 data and simulate the latest Polish tax and benefit systems.
Subcontracted with ISER – University of Essex.
Past years: 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011
Lights along the frontier: convergence of economic activity in the proximity of the Polish-German border, 1992-2012
This paper studies regional economic development on the municipality-level in Poland and Germany along the Oder-Neisse border. We use high-quality satellite night-time light intensity data as an innovative, comparable and reliable measure to proxy for economic activity on both sides of the border consistently over a long period of time (1992-2012). We use descriptive heat maps as well as regression analysis to investigate two aspects: first, how far is the economic convergence across and within municipalities along the Polish-German border? Second, what effect does the distance to the border have on economic activity as measured with light emissions? Our findings suggest that – somewhat surprisingly – convergence across the border has been almost complete. Polish towns that used to be economically much weaker have caught up with German towns. Also, we show that the patterns of economic activity related to distance vary greatly for Germany and Poland.
Data analysis to support effective evidence-based public policy
We apply the latest academic methods and tools to improve the understanding of consequences of different policy decisions and disseminate our findings broadly through the press and media.
Using our microsimulation model SIMPL, CenEA regularly publishes reports and commentaries on the implications of introduced or hypothetical tax and benefits reforms. These reports include our tax and benefit pre-election analysis, published prior to parliamentary elections in Poland and covering the evaluation of the consequences of different political party manifestos. We are also active in the development of the international microsimulation model EUROMOD and in the dissemination of research conducted using EUROMOD.
Taking advantage of data on population ageing from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) we have published reports on the implications of demographic dynamics in Poland and other countries with regard to health developments, long-term care, poverty and labour market activity.
For policy-related online publications by CenEA researchers please consult:
- Policy briefs/papers (in English)
- Komentarze CenEA (CenEA Commentaries in Polish)
- Other publications (in either English or Polish): working papers, research notes, microsimulation reports
News: 2019 edition of the (Ce)2 Workshop and Hurwicz Lecture
The sixth edition of the (Ce)2 workshop organised by CenEA in cooperation with CeMMAP will take place in Warsaw on 1-2 July 2019. Prof. Jörn-Steffen Pischke will give the 2019 Hurwicz Lecture.
The submission process for the 2019 (Ce)2 workshop in microeconomic theory and applications organised by CenEA in cooperation with CeMMAP is open until 5 April 2019. Call for papers and more information on the workshop can be found here. The workshop will take place in Warsaw between 1-2 July 2019.
We are very proud to announce that the 2019 keynote address in the Lecture Series in Honour of Leonid Hurwicz will be given by prof. Jörn-Steffen Pischke (London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance). For more information on previous addresses see the Hurwicz Lecture Series page.
As in preceding years the keynote lecture will overlap with the 2019 edition of the Warsaw International Economic Meeting (WIEM).
Ćwierć wieku później: długookresowe konsekwencje „terapii szokowej” na poziomie indywidualnym.
Okres realizacji: styczeń 2016 – grudzień 2018
Finansowany przez: Narodowe Centrum Nauki