Autor: webadmin
Lights along the frontier: convergence of economic activity in the proximity of the Polish-German border, 1992-2012
This paper studies regional economic development on the municipality-level in Poland and Germany along the Oder-Neisse border. We use high-quality satellite night-time light intensity data as an innovative, comparable and reliable measure to proxy for economic activity on both sides of the border consistently over a long period of time (1992-2012). We use descriptive heat maps as well as regression analysis to investigate two aspects: first, how far is the economic convergence across and within municipalities along the Polish-German border? Second, what effect does the distance to the border have on economic activity as measured with light emissions? Our findings suggest that – somewhat surprisingly – convergence across the border has been almost complete. Polish towns that used to be economically much weaker have caught up with German towns. Also, we show that the patterns of economic activity related to distance vary greatly for Germany and Poland.
Data analysis to support effective evidence-based public policy
We apply the latest academic methods and tools to improve the understanding of consequences of different policy decisions and disseminate our findings broadly through the press and media.
Using our microsimulation model SIMPL, CenEA regularly publishes reports and commentaries on the implications of introduced or hypothetical tax and benefits reforms. These reports include our tax and benefit pre-election analysis, published prior to parliamentary elections in Poland and covering the evaluation of the consequences of different political party manifestos. We are also active in the development of the international microsimulation model EUROMOD and in the dissemination of research conducted using EUROMOD.
Taking advantage of data on population ageing from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) we have published reports on the implications of demographic dynamics in Poland and other countries with regard to health developments, long-term care, poverty and labour market activity.
For policy-related online publications by CenEA researchers please consult:
- Policy briefs/papers (in English)
- Komentarze CenEA (CenEA Commentaries in Polish)
- Other publications (in either English or Polish): working papers, research notes, microsimulation reports
News: 2019 edition of the (Ce)2 Workshop and Hurwicz Lecture
The sixth edition of the (Ce)2 workshop organised by CenEA in cooperation with CeMMAP will take place in Warsaw on 1-2 July 2019. Prof. Jörn-Steffen Pischke will give the 2019 Hurwicz Lecture.
The submission process for the 2019 (Ce)2 workshop in microeconomic theory and applications organised by CenEA in cooperation with CeMMAP is open until 5 April 2019. Call for papers and more information on the workshop can be found here. The workshop will take place in Warsaw between 1-2 July 2019.
We are very proud to announce that the 2019 keynote address in the Lecture Series in Honour of Leonid Hurwicz will be given by prof. Jörn-Steffen Pischke (London School of Economics and Centre for Economic Performance). For more information on previous addresses see the Hurwicz Lecture Series page.
As in preceding years the keynote lecture will overlap with the 2019 edition of the Warsaw International Economic Meeting (WIEM).
Ćwierć wieku później: długookresowe konsekwencje „terapii szokowej” na poziomie indywidualnym.
Okres realizacji: styczeń 2016 – grudzień 2018
Finansowany przez: Narodowe Centrum Nauki
“Who gets to look nice and who gets to play? Effects of child gender on household expenditures”
We examine the relationship between a child’s gender and family expenditure using data from the Polish Household Budget Survey. Having a first-born daughter as compared with a first-born son increases the level of household expenditures on child and adult female clothing, and it reduces spending on games, toys and hobbies. This could be a reflection of a pure gender bias on behalf of the parents or a reflection of gender complementarities between parents’ and children’s expenditures. We find no robust evidence on gender differences in educational investment, measured by kindergarten expenditure. The analysed expenditure patterns suggest a so-far unexamined role of gender in child development. Parents in Poland seem to pay more attention to how girls look and favour boys with respect to activities and play, which could have consequences in adult life and contribute to sustaining gender inequalities and stereotypes.
Pakiet podatkowo-świadczeniowych rozwiązań rządu Zjednoczonej Prawicy
Jeśli zgodnie z planem rządu od lipca 2019 r. w życie wejdzie upowszechnienie świadczenia wychowawczego 500+, to reformy podatkowo-świadczeniowe skierowane do rodzin z dziećmi wprowadzone w obecnej kadencji Sejmu zwiększą zakres finansowego wsparcia rodzin o 39,6 mld zł rocznie. Wsparcie rodzin z dziećmi to najistotniejszy element pakietu rozwiązań podatkowoświadczeniowych analizowanego w najnowszym Raporcie Centrum Analiz Ekonomicznych CenEA, z którego wynika, że po uwzględnieniu wszystkich długoterminowych rozwiązań przyjętych podczas VIII kadencji Sejmu gospodarstwa domowe zyskują 32,7 mld zł rocznie.
Pełna wersja Raportu „Pakiet podatkowo-świadczeniowych rozwiązań rządu Zjednoczonej Prawicy” wraz z Załącznikiem.
Szczegóły analiz można znaleźć również w Informacji prasowej Finansowe wsparcie rodzin z dziećmi wyższe o 40 mld zł rocznie po VIII kadencji Sejmu.
Kontakt dla mediów:
Fundacja CenEA
dr hab. Michał Myck
mmyck@cenea.org.pl tel. +48 91 831 40 29
Pakiet podatkowo-świadczeniowych rozwiązań rządu Zjednoczonej Prawicy
Ponad trzy lata rządów koalicji Zjednoczonej Prawicy przyniosły jedne z najbardziej zauważalnych zmian w strukturze systemu podatkowo-świadczeniowego w Polsce po roku 1989. Wprowadzone reformy, na czele z programem Rodzina 500+, stanowią w dużym stopniu odzwierciedlenie zmian zapowiadanych w programie wyborczym Prawa i Sprawiedliwości w wyborach parlamentarnych w 2015 r. i ogłoszonych w exposé premier Beaty Szydło 18 listopada 2015 r. Równocześnie jednak decyzje podejmowane przez rząd z jednej strony poszerzone zostały o elementy niezapowiedziane w trakcie kampanii wyborczej z 2015 roku, a z drugiej strony, część deklaracji wyborczych z tej kampanii najprawdopodobniej nie zostanie już zrealizowana do czasu kolejnych wyborów. Do najważniejszych rozwiązań w tej pierwszej grupie należy zarówno zaakceptowane 4 kwietnia 2019 r. przez Sejm jednorazowe świadczenie dla emerytów i rencistów w 2019 roku (tzw. trzynasta emerytura), jak i propozycja upowszechnienia świadczenia wychowawczego 500+ na pierwsze dziecko w rodzinie bez względu na dochód od lipca 2019 r.
Policy in the Pipeline: Identifying Regional Public Investment Priorities Using a Natural Experiment
We identify regional public investment priorities by studying the development of the water pipe system in the largest district in Poland. For this purpose, we take advantage of a major administrative reform, implemented on 1 January 1999, which substantially changed the structure of Polish local government and reduced the number of top-tier administrative regions from 49 to 16. We treat the reform as a natural experiment, and apply the difference-in-differences approach to study developments along the boundary of the new Mazovian voivodeship. We find strong and positive implications for the development of the water pipe system in municipalities within the Mazovian voivodeship compared with those just outside its boundaries. The overall post-reform difference in the length of the total water pipe network is 25% and the difference in the per-capita length of the network is 30%. Local public investment priorities at the voivodeship level, potentially related to effective use of EU funds, are the most likely determinants of these differences.
Implications of Social and Material Deprivation for Changes in Health of Older People
Objective: We use the panel structure of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) data for 14 countries to examine the implications of material and social deprivation for health deterioration in old age and mortality. Method: To minimize the potential endogeneity bias, we examine the relationship between deprivation and changes in health rather than levels of health. We include a substantial set of fixed “initial conditions,” and extend the controls with health measures, as observed at the initial period. Results: The results of the probit regression suggest a strong and statistically significant relationship between measures of material and social deprivation and changes in physical and mental health. Mortality is only affected by the social dimension of deprivation. Discussion: Treating material and social deprivation separately rather than as a single social exclusion indicator allows for more specific identification of the role of the two dimensions, which might be important for policy decisions.
„Reference: Myck M, Najsztub M, Oczkowska M. (2020) Implications of Social and Material Deprivation for Changes in Health of Older People. J Aging Health 32(5-6):371‐383. doi:10.1177/0898264319826417„
Implications of the Polish 1999 administrative reform for regional socio-economic development
On 1 January 1999, four major reforms took effect in Poland in the areas of health, education, pensions and local administration. After 20 years, only in the last case does the original structural design remain essentially unchanged. In this paper, we examine the implications of this reform from the perspective of the distance of municipalities from their regional administrative capital. We show that despite fears of negative consequences for peripheral regions, the reform did not result in slower socio-economic development for those municipalities that found themselves further from the new administrative centres. We use a number of socio-economic indicators at municipal level and apply differences-in-differences methods comparing the outcomes before and after the reform between the municipalities for which the distance increased and those for which it did not. Municipalities are matched on pre-reform indicators using entropy balancing. Apart from small effects on net migration, we do not identify any significant negative effects of the 1999 administrative reform for the peripheral municipalities. In fact, results are positive in the case of municipal revenues and, while they are not precisely estimated in our preferred specification, they remain statistically significant in a number of robustness checks.